Continuous Extraction under Risk

The problem of optimal intertemporal extraction (harvest) of a resource is investigated. The resource stock and the price (exogenous) are Markov processes. The expected present value of all future profits is maximized. The effects of increasing risk in the process increments in the future on the present optimal control (the present extraction level) are investigated. It is proved that increasing risk in the increments of the stochastic price--and growth--processes may imply higher or lower optimal present extraction. The resuits are dependent on: a) Autocorrelation and stationarity in the price process; b) The first three derivatives of the extraction cost function; c) The first three derivatives of the deterministic part of the growth process. The effect of increasing risk in the process increments on the sign of the optimal change in the present extraction level can be unambiguously determined in severaI cases

Pulse Extraction under Risk and a Numerical Forestry Application

The problem of optimal pulse harvesting of a resource under risk is discussed. The fundamental importance of stationarity in the stochastic process is investigated and the limiting optimal stopping rule is derived. A numerical example from forestry is wed lo discuss the expected present value and the optimal slopping criterion as functions of time. Finally, the probability distribution of different optimal harvesting ages is calculated. In 1987, a publication will appear closely related to this one. It will contain a purely analytical derivation of the numerical results presented in this paper. Furthermore, it will contain a more general numerical optimization model, where any first order autoregressive price process and any price-age relationship can be used. Hence, this paper is a "popular" version of the final paper. Preliminary results show that the qualitative results discussed in this paper hold in very general cases

A game theory approach to the Iranian forest industry raw material market

Dynamic game theory is applied to analyze the timber market in northern Iran as a duopsony. The Nash equilibrium and the dynamic properties of the system based on marginal adjustments are determined. When timber is sold, the different mills use mixed strategies to give sealed bids. It is found that the decision probability combination of the different mills follow a special form of attractor and that centers should be expected to appear in unconstrained games. Since the probabilities of different strategies are always found in the interval [0,1], the boundaries of the feasible set are sometimes binding constraints. Then, the attractor becomes a constrained probability orbit. In the studied game, the probability that the Nash equilibrium will be reached is almost zero. The dynamic properties of timber prices derived via the duopsony game model are also found in the real empirical price series from the north of Iran

MMP-3 in the peripheral serum as a biomarker of knee osteoarthritis, 40 years after open total knee meniscectomy.

BACKGROUND: To explore potential biomarkers in a meniscectomy-induced knee osteoarthritis model, at forty years after meniscectomy. METHODS: We carried out a forty-year study of 53 patients who, as adolescents, underwent open total meniscectomy and assessed two potential synovial and serum biomarkers, namely glycosaminoglycan (GAG) and matrix metalloproteinase-3 (MMP-3). Of the 30 patients available for review, 8 had contralateral knee operations and were excluded. Of the remaining 22 patients, 17 had successful operated knee synovial fluid aspirations and 8 also had successful contralateral control knee aspirations. GAG and MMP3 levels in the synovial fluid and peripheral serum was measured using Alcian blue precipitation and ELISA quantification, respectively. Patients also had their knee radiographs assessed and their radiographic osteoarthritis classified as per the Kellgren-Lawrence and Ahlbӓck systems. RESULTS: At forty years after meniscectomy, synovial MMP-3 levels remain increased (p = 0.0132) while GAG levels were reduced (p = 0.0487) when compared to controls and these two levels correlate inversely. Furthermore, levels of synovial MMP-3 significantly correlated (p = 0.0032, r = 0.7734; p = 0.0256, r = 0.5552) and GAG levels significantly inversely correlated (p = 0.0308, r = - 0.6220; p = 0.0135, r = - 0.6024), respectively, with both radiological scoring systems. Interestingly, we found that the levels of serum MMP-3 correlated only with the synovial fluid levels of MMP-3 in the operated knee and not with the non-operated joint (p = 0.0252, r = 0.7706 vs. p = 0.0764, r = 0.6576). Multiple regression analysis for patient's quality of life based on these biomarkers revealed an almost perfect result with an R2 of 0.9998 and a p value = 0.0087. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that serum levels of MMP3 could be used as a potential biomarker for knee osteoarthritis, using a simple blood test. Larger cohorts are desirable in order to prove or disprove this finding

Prediction of knot size in uneven-sized Norway spruce stands in Sweden

The size of knots is negatively correlated with bending strength in sawn timber and it is therefore used as a quality grading criterion in national roundwood grading standards. Some standards even use the size of the largest knot as the sole estimate for individual log knottiness. The size of knots is determined by crown horizontal extension, which in turn is dependent on the impact of competing trees. Thus, with knot size models that are competition-dependent, roundwood quality due to knottiness can be simulated for different management alternatives. However, these types of models, calibrated on uneven-sized Norway spruce in Fennoscandia, are currently not available. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop a competition-dependent model framework for prediction of the largest knot size per stem height section, for application within uneven-sized Norway spruce stands. Data from terrestrial laser scanning of an uneven-sized stand in southern Sweden are used to calibrate a modular prediction framework, consisting of interlinked allometric statistical models. Alternative framework sub-models are presented and the preferred model combination can be selected according to context and available input data. The flexible modular format enables further development of separate sub-components for adaptation to growing conditions not covered by the current calibration range

Characterization of nitrotyrosine as a biomarker for arthritis and joint injury

Objectives: To characterize the utility of nitrotyrosine (NT) as a biomarker for arthritis and joint injury. Design: Synovial fluid, plasma, and urine from patients diagnosed with osteoarthritis (OA), rheumatoid arthritis (RA), anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury, meniscus injury and pseudogout, and knee-healthy volunteers were analyzed for concentrations of NT, nitrate and nitrite (NOx), matrix metalloproteinase (MMP)-3, MMP-1, MMP-9, more than 40 chemokines and cytokines. Results: In OA, plasma and synovial fluid NT were increased versus healthy volunteers. Synovial fluid to plasma NT ratios were elevated in OA patients. Synovial fluid from patients with ACL and meniscus injury and pseudogout had increased levels of NT (P < 0.001). In these samples, NT levels significantly correlated with ARGS-aggrecan neoepitope generated by aggrecanase cleavage of aggrecan (P <= 0.001), cross-linked C-telopeptides of type II collagen (P < 0.001), MMP-1 (P = 0.008), and MMP-3 (P <= 0.001). In RA, plasma NT decreased following 6 months of anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) treatment. For every 1.1% change in log(10) NT, there was a 1.0% change in the log(10) disease activity scores (DAS28-3 CRP). Both predicted and observed DAS28-3 CRP showed a robust linear relationship with NT. RA plasma NT positively correlated with CRP, MMP-3 and interferon gamma-induced protein 10. Conclusions: NT may serve as a useful biomarker for arthritis and joint injury. In RA, NT is highly correlated with several biomarkers and clinical correlates of disease activity and responds to anti-TNF therapy. (C) 2012 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Decline after immobilisation and recovery after remobilisation of synovial fluid IL1, TIMP, and chondroitin sulphate levels in young beagle dogs

OBJECTIVE: To monitor the concentration of markers of cartilage and synovium metabolism in the knee (stifle) joint synovial fluid of young beagles subjected to immobilisation and subsequent remobilisation.METHODS: The right hind limb of 17 dogs was immobilised in flexion for 11 weeks. Simultaneously, the contralateral left knee was exposed to increased weight bearing. The remobilisation period lasted 50 weeks. Litter mates served as controls. The concentration in joint lavage fluid of interleukin 1 (IL1) was measured by immunoassay, the activity of phospholipase A2 (PLA2) was determined by an extraction method, chondroitin sulphate (CS) concentration by precipitation with Alcian blue, hyaluronan (HA) by an ELISA-like assay using biotinylated HA-binding complexes, matrix metalloproteinase 3 (MMP-3), and tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinases 1 (TIMP-1) by sandwich ELISA, and synovitis was scored by light microscopy.RESULTS: Synovitis or effusion was absent in all experimental and control groups. Immobilisation decreased the joint lavage fluid levels of IL1 (p<0.05), TIMP (p< 0.05), and the concentration of CS down to 38 (p<0.05) in comparison with untreated litter mates with normal weight bearing. Immobilisation did not affect the activity of PLA2, or the concentration of MMP-3 or HA in synovial fluid. Joint remobilisation restored the decreased concentrations of markers to control levels. Increased weight bearing did not change the concentrations of markers in comparison with the control joints with normal weight bearing.CONCLUSIONS: 11 weeks joint immobilisation decreased the concentration of markers of cartilage and synovium metabolism in the synovial fluid, and remobilisation restored the concentrations to control levels. The changes in joint metabolism induced by immobilisation, as reflected by the markers, are thus different from those found in osteoarthritis, where increased levels of these markers are associated with enhanced degradation and synthesis. These findings suggest that the change induced in joint metabolism by immobilisation is reversible in its early stages